Following a spate of recent drone attacks off the coast of Bulgaria and Romania, the Black Sea region is becoming a major new security front for Europe, with knock-on concerns for food security.
The Baltic states have long been anxious about their precarious position on the eastern flank of the EU, and we have discussed drone incursions in that region on numerous occasions. But now our focus is shifting south.
Eastern front stretches south
In the space of one week, four merchant ships were struck by drones in Bulgariaโs โexclusive economic zoneโ of the Black Sea, resulting in multiple sailorsโ deaths. The two most recent attacks took place on Tuesday (13 October), just three miles outside Bulgariaโs territorial waters.
Then on Wednesday and Thursday, drones hit two chemical tankers off the coast of Romania.
Since Bulgaria and Romania’s exclusive economic zones in the Black Sea do not constitute sovereign territory, strikes on ships in these areas are not considered a direct attack on a NATO member state โ and therefore could not trigger Article 5, the Allianceโs collective defence rule. But Wednesday and Thursdayโs strikes were in Romanian territorial waters, which could up the ante.
These latest events are certainly concerning, confirms Bulgarian Renew Europe MEP Ilhan Kyuchyuk in an interview with BNR.
Ilhan Kyuchyuk, Member of the European Parliament (Renew Europe, Bulgaria)
โThe war is unfortunately spreading to the Black Sea region, and this is very worrying. The Black Sea is a European border. Bulgaria’s security is an integral part of the security of the European Union. We cannot accept lightly that merchant ships are being attacked, that sailors are being put in danger, and that economic activity in the region is under constant threat. Bulgaria must therefore take all necessary measures within the framework of the alliances to which it belongs.โ
You can listen to the original clip in Bulgarian here.
On that subject, just in the last day or two, Sofia has confirmed that it will join NATOโs anti-drone initiative after all โ following an announcement last month that it would not be doing so. Question marks remain over whether other such โnecessary measuresโ could include the countryโs return to the so-called Coalition of the Willing in support of Ukraine โ from which it withdrew in July.
After the first two October attacks, Bulgarian PM Rumen Radev was typically unwilling to cast aspersions on Moscow. But following the latest ones on Tuesday, which included a strike on a Ukrainian-owned vessel, he reluctantly conceded that Russia was likely the culprit and summoned the Russian envoy.
Then on Thursday, Radev and Romanian president Nicuศor Dan met with NATO secretary general Mark Rutte, who confirmed a stronger NATO presence had been established โalong the eastern flankโ.
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MEPs from the European Parliamentโs security and defence committee, including Andrey Novakov from the EPP group, are to visit Sofia and Varna in the coming weeks. Novakov, for his part, is in no doubt that Russia is behind these attacks.
Andrey Novakov, Member of the European Parliament (EPP, Bulgaria)
โPrime Minister Radev has finally plucked up the courage to say that all the evidence points to the Russian Federation, and I believe it must bear political responsibility for these attacks against completely innocent people. These are not legitimate targets. They are not warships. They are transporting, as is now clear, food supplies.โ
You can listen to the original clip in Bulgarian here.
Ilhan Kyuchyuk would prefer to see a full investigation of the dronesโ origins before pointing any fingers. Yet Bulgariaโs ability to trace drones is somewhat lacking.
Not least among the challenges Bulgaria faces is the fact that masked intruders set fire to 11 of 17 Starlink satellite communication antennas at a site near Sofia on Monday. It is unclear whether the damaged antennas were being used to provide communications support to Ukraineโs armed forces, but there is certainly some speculation that the move was intended to make it more difficult to identify the source of drone attacks.
In a similar act of sabotage to a Starlink ground station in Poland last month, prosecutors concluded those responsible were acting on behalf of the Russian intelligence services. These attacks are seen as an attempt by Moscow to disrupt critical communication lines tied to regional security and the Ukraine conflict.
Kyuchyuk has appealed for EU assistance in this area, among others.
Ilhan Kyuchyuk, Member of the European Parliament (Renew Europe, Bulgaria)
โLet us request European support for the investigation and establishment of the origin of the drones used, as well as specific measures for the safety of commercial shipping and the protection of civilian crews.โ
You can listen to the original clip in Bulgarian here.
A European problem
On the opposite side of Europe, Jorge Rodrigues, the geopolitical risk coordinator at Porto Business School, tells Portugalโs Renascenรงa that Europe as a whole needs to be on its guard.
Jorge Rodrigues, Geopolitical Risk Coordinator at Porto Business School :
โThis is yet another move that effectively creates a pattern of aggression which obviously must be a cause for concern for Europe. This is not a normal situation. We are not expecting, alongside the conflict in Ukraine, Russian divisions to invade Poland or Bulgaria or wherever. What we are saying is that it will continue with these threats and these hybrid actions โ which it subsequently denies, and which are creating tremendous instability and may, of course, pose a growing threat to security […]. This situation feels very worrying to me; the threats have been mounting, the consequences have been mounting, and Europe must be very vigilant, must react and must take a firm stance.โ
You can listen to the original clip in Portuguese here.
This certainly seems to be happening. Alongside high energy prices, European competitiveness and the blocโs long-term budget, the European Council has been discussing โthe intensification of Russiaโs hybrid campaignsโ at its summit in Brussels this Thursday and Friday (14/15 October).
It is expected to condemn Russia for targeting Ukraineโs agricultural infrastructure, Black Sea and Danube ports, border crossing points and export facilities, as well as blocking shipping lanes and destroying grain storage facilities. It will likely explicitly accuse Moscow of violating international and maritime law, weaponising food and undermining food security.
Speaking at Mondayโs Foreign Affairs Council, in advance of both the summit and the recent strikes in Romanian waters, Oana ศoiu, Romaniaโs acting foreign minister, underscored this food security argument. Radio Romรขnia reports.
Oana ศoiu, Acting Foreign Minister of Romania
โWe are discussing security at the Black Sea not just from Romania, Bulgaria’s and the European Union’s perspective. The Black Sea is a food artery to the world. In Romania’s case, for example, we are the number one European Union exporter of wheat, of oil seeds… If you look at the overall Black Sea region, almost a quarter of global oil seeds comes from our countries, [and] close to 60 per cent overall from the Black Sea region. When you look at wheat, a third of the world’s wheat trade comes from the Black Sea region.โ
You can listen to the original clip in English here.
Ukraine is a big wheat exporter and ensuring this flow is one way in which the EU has supported the countryโs war effort. But in recent months, there have been multiple attacks on cargo ships carrying grain from Ukraine. ศoiu confirms, though, that there are active efforts underway to ensure Ukraine can continue to get its supplies out.
Oana ศoiu, Acting Foreign Minister of Romania
โ55 per cent of Ukrainian wheat flows through the infrastructure that is now operating […] with Romania’s support. We are currently conducting strategic conversations with our neighbours, as well as the Republic of Moldova, to make sure we increase the infrastructure capacity for our own exports and in support of our neighbours.โ
You can listen to the original clip in English here.
The prices of wheat and other key cereals have risen by some 20 to 25 per cent since the beginning of the year alone, says Kuku Raadio, with this trend showing no sign of abating.
The situation in the Black Sea is playing a major role in this, asserts Estonian agro expert Martin Maante, with many international stakeholders including the UN, the EU, Turkey, the USA and India attempting to resolve the deadlock to allow the passage of cargo traffic โ but so far, to no avail.
Martin Maante, Agro Expert
“Over the past two months, lots of rumours have been circulating, quite a few suggesting that some kind of agreement has been reached. After that, prices plummet โ but only for 10 to 15 minutes, at which point we hear it was false information after all and the prices shoot back up. When it comes to the price of wheat, weโre living in a world in which the headlines hold great sway.”
You can listen to the original clip in Estonian here.
Not only is the situation in the Black Sea causing issues with grain prices and supply, it goes without saying that the military operations are also having a very direct impact on the regionโs fishing industry โ something that is confirmed by Yordan Gospodinov, chair of Bulgariaโs Association of Fish Product Producers (BGFISH).
Gospodinov tells BNR that signal jamming, which is now prolific, is putting fishing vessels at risk of getting lost at sea and hindering the monitoring of fishing operations.
Yordan Gospodinov, Chair of BGFISH
โYou cannot determine which vessel caught which fish as there is no electronic record in the monitoring system โ a pan-European system that is subject to constant oversight. Vessels maintain a continuous satellite link with the monitoring centre; and there are several such systems, managed by various authorities. At the same time, itโs possible to get lost at sea, especially if you lose phone connectivity.โ
You can listen to the original clip in Bulgarian here.
On Monday, the bloc adopted a new round of sanctions against Russia, mainly targeting companies and individuals involved in the military industry.
The Commission is also due to present a new European security strategy at the end of the month. In her September State of the Union address, Ursula von der Leyen touted the creation of a โEuropean Security Councilโ and the establishment of an emergency consultation procedure to respond to hybrid attacksโฆ
The situation in the Black Sea is evolving as we speak, so watch this space.
- Joanna Neville, Euranet Plus News Agency
