US presidential candidate Donald Trump’s latest controversial remarks about NATO revive discussions on how to strengthen the EU’s defence mechanisms.
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Yes, it is common in election campaigns for messages to be used on the domestic stage that do not go down well within the wider international community. But has Trump pushed his propensity to ruffle feathers too far this time?
Reactions
To paraphrase the presidential hopeful, who was speaking at a political rally last weekend, he would not only refuse to protect a NATO ally that had failed to commit the agreed two per cent of its GDP to defence spending, but he would actively encourage Russia to do “whatever the hell they want” with them.
Polish PM Donald Tusk met with German chancellor Olaf Scholz in the German capital on Monday (12 February), reports AMS. The two politicians discussed security cooperation in the face of the threat from Russia, and inevitably touched on the implications of Trump’s comments.
Olaf Scholz, Chancellor of Germany (in German):
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“NATO’s promise of protection applies unreservedly: all for one, and one for all. Any relativisation of NATO’s guarantee of assistance is irresponsible and dangerous – and solely in Russia’s interests. Nobody is allowed to play or bargain with Europe’s security.”
So Chancellor Scholz is not mincing his words. But in an interview for Žinių Radijas, Asta Skaisgirytė, the Lithuanian president’s chief foreign policy advisor, suggests that we do not overblow the significance of Trump’s words either.
Asta Skaisgirytė, Lithuanian Presidential Advisor (in Lithuanian):
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“This doesn’t, of course, help the overall level of trust between NATO allies, that’s for sure. On the other hand, these words have seemingly been dredged up from an old conversation in which the then President Trump was arguing that the allies should devote two per cent of GDP to defence. As we remember, during his presidency, Trump defended that two-per-cent figure very, very, very firmly – I would even go so far as to say fiercely – and not all the allies met it at the time. Lithuania was among those that already allocated two per cent to defence back then. Now we are spending even more.”
Kuku Raadio seeks the views of Estonia’s foreign minister Margus Tsahkna. Tsahkna stresses that Trump’s comments should be taken with a heavy dose of salt as they are solely intended to swing the vote of a small, key segment of domestic voters.
Margus Tsahkna, Estonia’s Minister of Foreign Affairs (in Estonian):
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“Trump has said that if he becomes President, he will make peace with Russia in one day. That is simply not possible; it is not something to be taken at face value. We hear talk of NATO collapsing, but it is not quite that clear-cut. The rules in the US have changed, and the President cannot make such decisions overnight all by himself. But of course it would complicate things if one of the key allies – its president – were more sceptical.”
Yordan Bozhilov, a security expert and former deputy defence minister of Bulgaria, agrees that we don’t need to panic just yet – as he tells our colleagues at BNR.
Yordan Bozhilov, Bulgarian Security Expert (in Bulgarian):
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“In the United States, the president does have a big role in setting policies, including foreign policy. But the role of Congress will be key in this case because NATO is based on a treaty that has been ratified. This now falls to Congress. So there are many mechanisms that will keep the United States in NATO and the United States engaged in Europe.”
Response
During his conference with Chancellor Scholz, Donald Tusk stressed that Europe’s best security prospects continue to lie in close cooperation with the US. However, they did also discuss revitalising the so-called Weimar Triangle – a historical alliance between Poland, Germany and France – and Tusk urged his partners in the EU and NATO not to take any chances. His comments are shared by Polskie Radio.
Donald Tusk, Prime Minister of Poland (in Polish):
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“So I urge all my NATO partners, my European partners, to increase their capabilities. There is no reason for the European Union as a whole to be weaker militarily than Russia. No reason at all. These words from Donald Trump should act as a wake-up call for all those who continue to underestimate the increasingly real threat that Europe faces. We must stand on our own two feet, always counting, of course, on the full cooperation of the United States.”
Even before this latest furore, leading European politicians had been clamouring for the EU to come up with a plan for its own self-defence. But Europe really appears to be heeding this wake-up call now – with countries across the bloc radically upping their defence spending and building up their military resources.
In an interview with RFI, Jean-Pierre Maulny, deputy director of the French Institute for International and Strategic Affairs (or IRIS), cites some interesting figures calculated by his institute.
Jean-Pierre Maulny, Deputy Director of IRIS (in French):
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“We can already see that between 2021 and 2024 – since we have the 2024 budgets – spending by EU countries will rise from 200 billion euros to 300 billion euros. […] And in terms of capital expenditure, in other words the purchase of equipment, this doubles from 50 billion euros to 100 billion euros. So, Europeans are convinced that they are in danger. They are reacting. It’s just that you can’t completely change your military and industrial tools overnight.”
That’s true, of course, but the EU is stepping in to help boost its member states’ defence capabilities, with measures such as more money for R&D, joint procurement of military supplies and support for the bloc’s home-grown ammunitions industry.
Yet academic and former NATO researcher Guillaume Lasconjarias adds, in the same interview, that no matter what harsh words and veiled threats are uttered by either side, the defence destinies of Europe and the US are inexorably intertwined. With Europe’s member states providing the US with a steady stream of defence income, and the US sending essential military equipment and support back across the Atlantic, neither party will be too quick to rock the proverbial boat.
Guillaume Lasconjarias, Associate Professor at Sorbonne University (in French):
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“Again, if we buy American, it’s partly a way of making the Americans respect us; their guarantee of security. The Americans would also have a lot to lose if, overnight, an autonomous European industry emerged that was in direct competition with their own. This is not going to happen. But it’s possible to imagine that this kind of talk – saying ‘we don’t need American equipment anymore, we could buy elsewhere’ – could be a form of negotiation on the part of the Europeans.”
Realism
Meanwhile, Iulian Chifu, president of Romanian research institute the Center for Conflict Prevention and Early Warning, tells Radio România that one EU defence idea that resurfaces regularly does not, in his view, have legs.
Iulian Chifu, President of the Center for Conflict Prevention and Early Warning (in Romanian):
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“Here is a theme that France has always promoted: that of the European army. From our point of view, the ability to create a European alternative is extremely limited – indeed, non-existent, at least right now. But it is a good idea to take steps to ensure our own defence.”
One specific thing being heavily promoted by French president Emmanuel Macron is the idea of a European ‘nuclear shield’.
Since the UK’s withdrawal from the Union, France has been the only EU member state to possess its own nuclear weapons. Macron has expressed a willingness to put these weapons at the EU’s disposal, with other voices – including some in Germany – pushing for a new alliance with the UK in this regard.
Butsecurity expert Yordan Bozhilov remains unconvinced that this is the way forward, as he tells BNR.
Yordan Bozhilov, Bulgarian Security Expert (in Bulgarian):
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“Many European leaders, including France’s Macron, have said that Europe should take over its own defence; build up its own defence forces. However, this is now outdated thinking. Everyone can see that, in the face of the threat coming from Russia, Europe cannot build up a defence on its own. That is why NATO is needed, and I don’t think anyone is under any illusions anymore that Europe can have a serious defence without NATO.”
And, he goes on, NATO cannot exist without the US…
Yordan Bozhilov, Bulgarian Security Expert (in Bulgarian):
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“The United States has the largest and most powerful military with the latest weapons. The US provides NATO with the biggest budget. Without the US, I find it difficult to imagine both NATO’s existence and European defence.”
Which I guess brings us full circle.
- Author: Joanna Neville, Euranet Plus News Agency
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