What are the EU’s respective positions on China and the US, and what should they be? Some observers feel Brussels comes down too far on one side, while others claim the opposite.
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And everyone would be wise to think before they speak as comments made in passing are studied, repeated and interpreted in an endless cycle. A bit like a game of Chinese whispers!
How much should Europe meddle?
French president Emmanuel Macron appears not to have heeded this warning. Returning from a state visit to China, which took place from 5 to 7 April, Macron told several journalists on his flight that EU countries should not become vassal states – in other words, states whose foreign affairs are dictated by another.
Pointing to the increasing Sino-US tensions over Taiwan, Macron urged the bloc neither to dance to America’s tune nor to support a Chinese ‘overreaction’. This would, he said, be getting ‘caught up in a crisis that is not ours’.
The French president’s comments – particularly those suggesting Europe distances itself from US policy – have caused outrage across Europe, as Luxembourg’s 100,7 reports.
France’s head of state’s subsequent visit to the Netherlands on Tuesday (11 April) was overshadowed by the furore. He attempted to set the record straight in a speech in The Hague, in which he claimed that he was not, in fact, advocating cutting off longstanding ties with our allies across the Pond.
Emmanuel Macron, President of France (in English):
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“Because if you accept losing your sovereignty, if you accept depending on other powers, you put yourself in a situation of not deciding for yourself; and not being in charge of continuing, preserving, developing your own identity. Defending sovereignty doesn’t mean shying away from our allies. It means that we must be able to choose our partners and shape our own destiny, rather than being a mere witness of the dramatic evolution of this world. This means that we must strive to be rule-makers rather than rule-takers. And this we can do in a cooperative manner in keeping with our spirit of openness and partnership.”
Everyone in the EU had something to say about Macron’s comments – some of them undoubtedly misconstruing them to some degree or other. Lithuanian presidential advisor Asta Skaisgirytiė, for example, felt she had to argue that Europe should not be seeking to break away from the US on defence, in an interview with Žinių Radijas.
Asta Skaisgirytė, Advisor to Lithuania’s President (in Lithuanian):
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“However, if we are talking in terms of security, defence, it would seem to us that the alliance with the United States through the Transatlantic Space is something we should strengthen, rather than seek autonomy from. This is probably the primary aspect that bothers us when it comes to the question of strategic autonomy.”
Kuku Raadio asks Märt Läänemets, a researcher at Tallinn’s Estonian Academy of Security Sciences, for his thoughts on Macron’s remarks.
In Läänemets’ view, the protracted nature of the war in Ukraine is serving to hold China back, as China can see that any similar attack on Taiwan is likely to generate serious resistance at an international level. Beijing’s enthusiasm for a transatlantic split is therefore understandable. Macron’s, on the other hand, he considers more concerning.
Märt Läänemets, Researcher at the Estonian Academy of Security Sciences (in Estonian):
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“This should be taken more seriously than China’s military rhetoric. Macron talks about Europe’s strategic autonomy; that Europe does not have to follow the US in its military and political actions towards Taiwan. But this is exactly what China wants. This is all China needs to weaken the ties between the US and the EU – especially military ties and cooperation.”
BNR interviews Bulgaria’s former deputy minister of foreign affairs, Milen Keremedchiev, who emphasises that the EU’s policy towards China already hardly resembles that of the US and hints that Macron may have his own agenda here.
Milen Keremedchiev, Bulgaria’s former Deputy Foreign Minister (in Bulgarian):
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“President Macron is desperate to maintain his leadership, and that of France, in the field of EU foreign policy despite the severe political problems he is facing in his country, not to mention the endless strikes. The European Union’s policy towards China is much more moderate, much softer, than the US’s policy. Trade and the economy are at the centre of the [EU-China] talks, but consideration will also be given to Xi Jinping’s 12-point proposal on the conflict between Russia and Ukraine. This proposal is currently rejected by both the US and Ukraine, but it is being considered by European leaders. China wants to demonstrate its credentials as a world leader by mediating in military conflicts. It has, for example, played a central role in improving relations between Saudi Arabia and Iran, two bitterly antagonistic countries.”
Marco Di Liddo, an analyst at Italian think tank the Center for International Studies, tells Radio 24 in Milan that Europe should not be afraid of involving itself in the evolving geopolitical situation in Asia. Like Keremedchiev, Di Liddo also seems sceptical of Macron’s motives.
Marco Di Liddo, Analyst at CeSI, the Center for International Studies (in Italian):
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“I believe that Europe should not shy away from the Taiwan crisis, because Asia is the world’s political and economic engine. And if Europe keeps its distance from the Taiwan crisis, it further reduces its voice on the international stage. So the question is not whether we sit at the table, but how we should sit. Macron poses this challenge; he says that a strategically independent Europe must be able to express a strong voice in all the most relevant international dossiers. However, Macron’s words hide a basic ambiguity. Macron remains the French president. France, when speaking about Europe, always imagines it under French leadership. So we must be clear. What Europe does France dream of? A Europe where everything is decided in Paris? Or a truly strong and united Europe, with everything decided in Brussels? I know the answer. It’s not my personal opinion – history says so. I think Macron dreams of the first scenario more than the second. Partly because before being the country that gave birth to him, France was the country that gave birth to De Gaulle.”
A dose of reality
Macron’s comments at the weekend have also served to undermine the show of EU unity the French president had intended to convey when he invited Commission president Ursula von der Leyen along on his visit to Beijing.
Officially, the bloc supports the so-called ‘One China’ policy. But this has not stopped it from developing close relationships with Taiwan in a number of areas including trade, green energy and human rights. Brussels rejects, of course, any suggestion of military force in resolving the issues between Taiwan and the People’s Republic.
In a speech she gave on 30 March – prior to her China trip – to two key European think tanks, Ursula von der Leyen strongly criticised Beijing for ramping up both its military posture and its “policies of disinformation and economic and trade coercion”. She also stated categorically that China’s stance on the war in Ukraine will be a determining factor in EU-China relations going forward.
At the same time, the Commission chief confirmed her unwillingness to sever ties with China.
Ursula von der Leyen, President of the European Commission (in English):
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“I believe it is neither viable – nor in Europe’s interest – to decouple from China. Our relations are not black or white – and our response cannot be either. This is why we need to focus on de-risk[ing] – not de-coupl[ing].”
Political philosopher Joséphine Staron is director of international relations at the French governance think tank Synopia. She tells France’s euradio that the fortunes of Europe and China are indeed strongly interconnected, and that neither one can do without the other.
Joséphine Staron, Political Philosopher (in French):
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“China and the United States have entered into an unprecedented economic and trade war. In recent months, we have seen the tone become even tougher and military and defence issues are beginning to emerge. The fact that China supports Russia is further aggravating this tension with the Americans and the West. Not to mention the threat it poses to Taiwan. But unlike the US, the Europeans are not really involved in this trade war. China and the US are the EU’s two main trading partners and this will be the case for a long time yet. But China, which increasingly finds itself cut off from the US market, and even if it finds new trade opportunities, notably with Russia, cannot do without the European market. It will be dependent on it, just as we are on [the Chinese market], for many years to come.”
The plenary of the European Parliament will hold a debate next Tuesday (18 April) to try and identify the European Union’s response to “the growing global challenges stemming from a more repressive and assertive China”.
EU arms itself against intimidation
On 28 March, the Council and the European Parliament reached political agreement on the EU’s new anti-coercion instrument – a regulation designed to protect the Union and its member states from economic intimidation by third countries.
The instrument was formulated under pressure from Lithuania, which has a particularly tricky relationship with China. The Baltic state has seen its imports blocked by the Asian superpower ever since it allowed Taiwan to open a representative office in Vilnius in 2021.
While Lithuania found itself temporarily drowning in unsold exports and had to take a loan from the EU, its economy seems to have bounced back surprisingly well as it has found new and willing export partners around the globe.
In an interview with Žinių Radijas, Lithuanian MEP Andrius Kubilius expresses his satisfaction over the new ‘weapon’ in the EU’s ‘arsenal’.
Andrius Kubilius, Member of the European Parliament – EPP, Lithuania (in Lithuanian):
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“I think this is the right and rational step to take. In my opinion, it is a clear warning to China or any other country that might think of taking action against Lithuania or any other EU country. The European Union will now have sufficiently sharp retaliatory weapons in its arsenal. As such, a member state can expect a response and not feel abandoned, unheard or undefended. It is worth mentioning that, from the very beginning, the EU said that China’s actions against Lithuania were completely unacceptable and that the EU would take steps. The EU contacted the World Trade Organization and launched an investigation into China’s actions. And now, after all these procedures, a new legal economic response mechanism is born, one that I might even call the ‘Lithuanian mechanism’.”
Many other countries are even more dependent on China than Lithuania was. A lot of large German companies have investments there, for example, with other countries heavily reliant on Chinese inward investment.
This anti-coercion instrument is just one of several strings the EU is adding to its bow to relieve its trade dependencies. Others include, for instance, the recently published critical raw materials act and the industrial policy strategy.
Brussels has stressed that coercion countermeasures will only be imposed in extremis, the instrument’s aim being to deter and de-escalate economic intimidation by encouraging the third country in question to enter into dialogue.
- Author: Joanna Neville, Euranet Plus News Agency
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