While 2020 has been a complicated year for relations between the European Union and Turkey, 2021 should mark a turning point in relations. But it is Ankara that is in the driving seat.
Never simple, even more complicated since the coup attempt in 2016 in Turkey and Ankara’s subsequent crackdown on the rule of law… In 2020, the relationship between the European bloc and Turkey was in really bad shape. Above all, Turkish actions in the Eastern Mediterranean have caused the situation to further deteriorate.
With the new year, both sides seem to be looking for a revival of the relationship. Turkey, an important neighbour of the EU, is also a strategic partner, a member of NATO and a candidate country for EU membership. There are numerous links between the EU and Turkey, including trade partnership, cooperation on migration, energy dialogue and discussions on international issues.
Encouraged by a more positive attitude from Ankara, HRVP Josep Borrell hopes that this will lead to a positive dynamic, as highlighted at a conference organised by the Foundation Robert Schuman in February.
Josep Borrell, EU High Representative: Turning the page of 2020 (in French)
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“Things are a little better with Turkey. We have some encouraging statements from Ankara, and some positive steps. We must move forward in concrete terms, in the right direction. We have to get out of the negative dynamic of the year 2020, which was a horrible dynamic, we have to return to cooperation, a mutually beneficial relationship with Turkey.”
In January, the president of Turkey, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, pleaded to turn a new page in the relations between his country and the EU. During a videoconference with European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen, Erdoğan explained that the EU is high on Turkey’s agenda, and that Turkey’s future lies in Europe.
Usual promises, unusual situation
It is not the first time that Ankara pleads for an improvement of relations, without always following through with action. Nonetheless, the international game has changed, and Turkey may need the EU more than ever, from an economic but also from a geopolitical point of view.
The EU is by far Turkey’s number one import and export partner, as well as a source of investment. In 2019, Turkey was the EU’s fifth largest trading partner, export market and supplier of imports. In the same year, EU merchandise exports to Turkey stood at €68 billion, while imports from Turkey amounted to €70 billion. After a currency crisis in mid-2018, Turkey is suffering from economic fallout of the Covid-19 pandemic. It needs European investments to finance its growth.
Another issue for Ankara is that the new US administration is expected to be tougher on it, especially in terms of rule of law. Its relationship with Russia is complicated because the two partners support opposing camps in several conflicts, such as Libya, Syria or Nagorno-Karabakh. So, the EU could be Ankara’s best partner. So says Dorothee Schmid, researcher at the Institut français des relations internationales (IFRI).
Dorothee Schmid, researcher at IFRI: Turkey needs EU more than a year ago (in French)
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“Almost every year, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan resets the counters. Today, Turkey is in a difficult economic situation; it really needs to restore its image and confidence. There is a real need today, a window of opportunity for Erdoğan to re-attract European capital. Another major parameter is the change in the American administration. The Turks now fear that Washington will change its attitude and become more severe. So in this case, allies will have to be found again – the relationship with Russia being a bit unsteady. So in this case the European Union always comes a kind of buffer zone with the major powers.”
However, more than speeches, what Europeans expect from Turkey are positive actions. In fact, it is not the first time Ankara has done so. Europeans know that the situation can change quickly. On several occasions in 2020, on the eve of a European Council, Turkey has called home exploration vessels that sailed in disputed territories in the Eastern Mediterranean, only to send them back as soon as the summit ended. Ankara’s aim here was to make it more difficult for Europeans to make decisions, including to adopt sanctions, in the absence of Turkish ships in the disputed territories.
Sergey Lagodinsky, German MEP from the Greens/EFA group, who chairs the EP delegation to the EU-Turkey Joint Parliamentary Committee, warns against this behaviour. According to this MEP, improving the relationship depends on the Turkish side, as it is the one not respecting the rules.
Sergey Lagodinsky, MEP – Greens/EFA, Germany: Don’t play with the EU (in English)
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“I think that, what we have experienced in the past half a year, is that actions do not always follow rhetorics. That is something that is important for me: that the government in Ankara understands that the EU might be vulnerable, sometimes not united on certain issues, but that we are not naive and we know exactly what game is being played. And I think this game should not play to each other because our relationship should be beyond games. Our relationship should be sincere and should be built on trust. Because if we don’t have trust we cannot advance on this path towards a common European future”.
Rebuilding trust will be one of the challenges of the year, starting with the end of a sometimes insulting anti-European narrative from the Turkish elite.
The Eastern Mediterranean, centrepiece in the relations
While the relationship with Turkey has many dimensions, in order to make a clean slate of the past and seriously revitalise the partnership with Turkey, the European side is putting forward two priorities. Ankara must show progress on the Eastern Mediterranean and on the rule of law, stresses MEP Lagodinsky.
Sergey Lagodinsky, MEP – Greens/EFA, Germany: Be clear on our expectations (in English)
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“I think that the EU has to be clear about what the EU wants. And we should make clear that our Turkish colleagues must make progress, in the area of the rule of law, and in the area of foreign affairs, especially Eastern Mediterranean and this would mean that we would have an enhanced cooperation toward for example custom union, towards situation with visa liberalisation, but it must be clear that precondition for the progress here should be progress in the rule of law, civil rights but also ni Eastern Mediterranean.”
According to EU leaders, the centrepiece for improving the relationship is the situation in the Eastern Mediterranean. Two members of the European Union – Greece and Cyprus – are immediately threatened by Turkish provocations in this area. Last December, the European Council made it clear that no improvement would be possible without a lasting end to the illegal actions vis-à-vis Athens and Nicosia. In 2020, relations had further deteriorated with illegal Turkish drilling and exploration activities in the exclusive economic zones of Cyprus and Greece, as well as Turkey’s support for actions at odds with UN resolutions in the Northern part of Cyprus.
After the EU adopted sanctions against two Turkish citizens linked to unauthorised drilling activities close to Cyprus, in February 2020, EU leaders called in December for completing the list of sanctioned persons and entities. So far these sanctions are still under discussion, with some member states more reluctant to adopt them as the situation has calmed down and there are no Turkish ships in the disputed waters.
The beginning of 2021 is promising. Greece and Turkey have agreed to start exploratory talks to settle their dispute over the exploration of hydrocarbons and disputed waters. The first round of discussion took place in January for the first time in nearly five years, and a new meeting is scheduled for early March. But the talks will be complex, and the two have yet to agree on the list of subjects to be discussed.
Regarding the Cyprus settlement, the United Nations plans to host an informal multilateralism-stakeholder meeting in the spring. The island has been divided since 1974, with the Republic of Cyprus and the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus (TRNC), recognised only by Turkey. The UN meeting is expected to include Greek and Turkish Cypriot representatives and the three guarantors: Turkey, Greece and the United Kingdom. These talks will also be complicated, as the new, so-called president of the TRNC, Ersin Tatar, has said he will only participate if the negotiations focus on a two-state solution – a vision backed by Erdoğan, but a no-go for the Greek Cypriot side, which pleads for a federation.
Rule of law concerns
The second source of bilateral tensions and concerns on the EU side, in particular the European Parliament, is the issue of the rule of law and human rights in Turkey.
Since the July 2016 coup attempt, academics, journalists, peaceful protesters, members of the civil society – such as the philanthropist Osman Kavala -, or politicians from the Kurdish people’s Democratic Party (HDP) – including HDP chair Selahattin Demirstas – have been arrested. Civil society is under constant pressure and the independence of the judiciary is called into question.
In the European Parliament, the state of mind towards Turkey will not improve without a real change in the country. And at the start of 2021, the rule of law situation is not good, warns Nacho Sanchez Amor, Spanish MEP from the S&D group and the EP’s rapporteur on Turkey. In early February, once again more than a hundred students peacefully demonstrating were arrested.
Nacho Sanchez Amor, MEP – S&D, Spain: Ankara has to converge to EU rules (in English) :
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“Turkey says ‘okay, we want our future in Europe, we are back on the path of convergence with Europe. But what do we see in Turkey? Attacks on the students in Bogazici, harsh rhetoric against LGBTI movement, no release of Kavala, no release of Demirstas, no compliance with the ruling of European Court of human rights. What facts are we to consider, what proof of the change of acting in Turkey. At the moment we only have love letters; we don’t need love letters: what we need are facts, political decisions and real progress on the path to democracy.”
According to Sanchez Amor, for Ankara the bigger question is whether or not it will decide to become a mature democracy.
Read the second part of this article here.
- Author: Camille Cerise Gessant, Euranet Plus News Agency
